Tel Aviv: 120-seat vote sets stage for coalition scramble

Voters in Israel will cast ballots on Tuesday for the 120 seats in the Knesset, a parliament where a governing coalition requires at least 61 members.

The country has endured more than three years of conflict following the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, which killed approximately 1,200 people and resulted in the capture of 251 hostages. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has led Israel through these wars, including engagements in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and Yemen. His current administration includes Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, and two ultra-Orthodox parties.

Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot runs as the leader of Yashar, a new center-right party. His son, Gal, died in Gaza during the war. Recent polling places Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu, though no bloc has secured a definitive majority. Eisenkot has pledged not to serve under a government led by Netanyahu.

The election centers on accountability for the October 7 failures, the military service of ultra-Orthodox men, and the power of the judiciary. Netanyahu has resisted a state commission of inquiry and enlisting ultra-Orthodox men, relying instead on their parties for support. Eisenkot proposes establishing a commission and expanding military service. Both leaders are also navigating strained international relations, with Netanyahu emphasizing his ties to President Trump and Eisenkot warning that isolation threatens Israel's economy.

Coalition building will determine the next prime minister, not just the vote count. Two predominantly Arab parties, including the United Arab List, are running. While Ra'am previously joined a coalition in 2021, most Jewish-led parties, including Eisenkot’s, hesitate to partner with them. This reluctance may prevent the anti-Netanyahu camp from reaching the 61-seat threshold.

If neither leader forms a majority, several scenarios are possible. Eisenkot could break his pledge and rely on Arab support. Netanyahu and Eisenkot could form a unity government. Netanyahu might accept a plea deal to step down. Or, a deadlock could leave Netanyahu as caretaker until a repeat election next year.

If a majority opposes Netanyahu, they could elect a new Knesset speaker and pass legislation on military service. Netanyahu’s Likud party is already promoting a narrative of a stolen vote to potentially block these moves.