ICE Raids and Low Birth Rates Drive Enrollment Drops in LA Schools

The population of children under 18 in the United States has fallen by roughly 2.1 million since 2010. This long-term demographic shift is now accelerating due to federal immigration enforcement actions that have disrupted local school districts. Los Angeles Unified School District, the second largest in the country, lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades. Board member Kelly Gonez noted that birth rates in the county have declined for decades, meaning fewer children are entering the system.

The Trump administration began detaining and expelling large numbers of foreign residents last year, compounding the existing enrollment crisis. A study by the Migration Policy Institute found that as many as 1.9 million people left the United States during the first 18 months of the administration's second term. Federal officials weakened restrictions that previously kept ICE agents away from public school zones. Gonez said that many families immediately went into hiding. The district predicted a 2% drop in enrollment, but the actual decline was double that amount.

At Santee Education Complex in South Los Angeles, teacher Guadalupe Cardona reported that over 200 students did not show up on the first day of school. In October 2025, an ICE agent opened fire near the school, striking a man from Mexico and an agent, though no students were injured. Cardona said fear from the clash and other raids caused the enrollment plunge. She lost two teachers at the start of the school year as families moved away. Parent Guadalupe Pineda, who works in a shop near the high school, said there is less sales and less traffic in the neighborhood.

The decline is visible across the nation. The U.S. Department of Education reports that public school enrollment peaked in 2019 and fell by roughly 1.5 million students by the 2024 school year. Texas saw a statewide drop of more than 76,000 students last year, mostly among Hispanic children. In Florida, Miami-Dade and Broward County districts lost roughly 30,000 children combined after the administration stripped temporary protected status from Haitian refugees. Researchers predict enrollment will fall by at least another 2 million students by 2030, a 7% national decline in roughly a decade.

Economists note this is the first time in nearly a century that birth rates and immigration levels are low simultaneously. Thomas Dee, an education policy economist at Stanford University, said that stopping or slowing immigration exacerbates the problems of demographic decline. Communities are now confronting painful decisions about closing schools. A June report by Bellwether and WestEd warned that public schools are entering an era of sustained enrollment declines in 40 states. The study predicted a loss of $11 billion a year in public school funding linked to these drops.

The White House views the changes positively. Spokeswoman Lauren Bis said in an email that deportations make American classrooms less crowded. She cited a September statement noting the total foreign-born population declined by 2.9 million from January 2025 to July 2026. That marks the first time net migration to the United States was negative in a year and a half period since the 1930s. Ira Mehlman of the Federation for American Immigration Reform said the school system does not guarantee a specific number of kids. He argued that finding new students is not the job of the immigration system.

Local officials are preparing for structural changes. LAUSD announced a citywide effort in September to identify buildings and campuses that will close. Gonez expects the cuts to be deep and painful. She noted that when a district is roughly half the size of its student population from 20 years ago, it is hard to find a sustainable path to keep campuses open. The district is facing a second school year in a row with 4% enrollment declines. State officials in California predict the state could lose another 710,000 students over the next decade if current trends in fertility and migration hold.