Ad Spending Data Shows 70 House Districts in Final Midterm Fight

An analysis of final-week advertising data shows that the 2026 midterm election for the U.S. House is defined by 70 districts where both major parties are spending at least six figures on messaging. The data indicates that the core battle is less about preventing a Democratic wave and more about determining the scale of potential seat changes. Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House, but that advantage is expected to shift to Democratic control in the final days of the campaign.

The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as the favorite in 220 seats. Additionally, 17 districts are listed as toss-ups, and another 30 are considered potentially competitive but currently lean toward the Republican Party. This assessment comes from a midterm environment that historically disadvantages the party in power. The final competitive landscape is expansive, with heavy investment in states including Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida.

Specific districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida have seen more than $10 million each in ad spending. These funds are directed at districts considered toss-ups. Conversely, deep-red communities in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas have seen seven-figure ad buys. Resources are also being deployed to districts where recent redistricting by Republicans may prove to be a strategic error. The final days of the campaign are characterized by last-minute resource allocation to these high-stakes areas.

Most seats that had narrow margins in the 2024 presidential election have shifted toward Democrats. This trend is particularly visible in 10 districts where voters chose a presidential candidate from one party and a House nominee from the other. These shifts affect seats held by Democratic Representatives Adam Gray of California’s 13th District, Nellie Pou of New Jersey’s 9th District, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez of Washington’s 3rd District. Retiring Republican Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska’s 2nd District is also part of this group.

Data from AdImpact shows that Republicans have reduced ad reservations in these four specific districts in recent weeks. A recent NPR, PBS News, and Marist poll found that Democrats hold a 10-point advantage among registered voters. The same poll shows an 8-point Democratic lead with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. These numbers suggest a wider range of competitive seats on paper, before considering candidate quality or outside spending.

Cost of living is the top concern for voters, driven by rising gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing war in Iran. These economic factors contribute to voter dissatisfaction. A record number of congressional retirement announcements has also amplified an anti-incumbency trend seen in primary elections. Mid-decade redistricting further scrambled the map after a Supreme Court decision rolled back parts of the Voting Rights Act.

Republicans shifted boundary lines to add more conservative voters to districts held by Democratic Representatives Marcy Kaptur of Ohio’s 9th District, Don Davis of North Carolina’s 1st District, Shomari Figures of Alabama’s 2nd District, and Darren Soto of Florida’s 9th District. Democrats performed similar redistricting in California, affecting districts held by Republican Representatives James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, and Darrell Issa, as well as Independent Kevin Kiley. Only Figures and Soto are in districts currently rated as favoring Republicans.

Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District are the most expensive races, with each planning more than $12 million in spending. Other high-cost areas include Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York’s 17th District, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd Districts. These races include seats redrawn by Republicans to minimize Democratic voting power, such as Alabama’s 2nd and Tennessee’s 9th Districts. They also include districts where voters backed former President Trump by more than 10 points, such as Kentucky’s 6th and Arkansas’ 2nd Districts.

The 70 races with at least six figures of ad spending from each party voted for Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024. Sixty districts are listed as priorities by both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms. This overlap highlights the impact of the Trump administration’s unpopularity with voters over the last year. Not every race will end up close or see a change in party control. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Districts In Play” gave Trump closer to 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little to no ad spend from either party.