Secretary of State Race Shifts to 'Lean D', Cook Report Moves 5th District to 'Lean R'

Two Indiana races moved toward Democrats this week, and both now hinge on which party turns out more voters on Tuesday. Sabato's Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, changed its rating of the secretary of state's race from 'tossup' to 'Lean D' on Thursday. The next day, the Cook Political Report shifted Indiana's 5th Congressional District from 'Likely R' to 'Lean R'.

The secretary of state's ballot has four candidates: Republican Max Engling, Democrat Beau Bayh, Libertarian Lauri Shillings and Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard. The 5th District race pairs Republican Victoria Spartz, who holds the seat, against Democrat J.D. Ford. No independent or third-party candidates appear on that ballot.

Earlier this year, the Cook Political Report had rated Spartz's seat 'Solid R.' Friday's change was one of 12 House ratings the report shifted toward Democrats before Election Day. The report rates the 5th District as R+8, the only Indiana district without a double-digit Republican lead in average voter results over the past two presidential elections. The district includes the Indianapolis suburbs of Fishers, Carmel and Westfield.

Mario Massillamany, the Hamilton County Republican Party chair and an 'All INdiana Politics' contributor, said early-voting turnout does not show how Republicans will vote because they tend to vote later than Democrats. He said he still expects Engling to win, but he also expects Ballard to pull votes from Engling. "What we need is Republicans to show up and vote," Massillamany said. "There are more Republicans. The problem is getting them excited, getting them energized and getting them to show up to vote."

Democratic strategist Lara Beck, who also contributes to 'All INdiana Politics,' said Bayh has run a disciplined campaign while Republicans have fought among themselves. In May, Engling launched a last-minute campaign to unseat incumbent Secretary of State Diego Morales at the Indiana Republican Party convention in June. "When you look at that, it has been so negative, and all that negativity is out in the public domain," Beck said. "It's not just being done behind the scenes; it's out front and center."

Beck said the changing politics in the 5th District suburbs give Democrats a chance. "I mean, these counties and these communities are changing in terms of how they vote," she said. Massillamany said Spartz still can win but waited too long to attack Ford. "I think she is doing that now and I think that she is going to win this seat," he said.

Beck and Massillamany both pointed to four Indiana House races as signals for how the night runs statewide: Republican incumbents Becky Cash in Carmel, Danny Lopez in Carmel, Hunter Smith in Zionsville and Chris Jeter in Fishers. Democrats need to flip four seats to break the Republican supermajority in the House, and they have targeted those four races in Indianapolis' northern suburbs.

Election Day is Tuesday. Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Voters must be registered and carry a valid photo ID issued by Indiana or the federal government, such as a driver's license or passport. All Bureau of Motor Vehicle branches run from 8:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday and from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Tuesday to process ID applications, and a temporary paper ID from the BMV will be accepted.

'All INdiana Politics' airs at 9:30 a.m. Sunday on WISH-TV and 11:30 p.m. Sunday on WRTV.