Lotter Sees GOP Holding Senate, Losing House

WASHINGTON, D.C. Marc Lotter told listeners on The Hammer and Nigel Show that Republicans will retain control of the Senate while Democrats are likely to take the House. The former press secretary to Vice President Mike Pence and current co-host of Newsmax’s Wake Up America spoke on the hotline with less than one week remaining until Election Day. He described the outcome as a probable repetition of historical midterm patterns for the party in power.

Lotter cited previous cycles to support his forecast. He noted that Republicans lost approximately 40 House seats in 2018, while Democrats lost nine in 2022. He stated that he does not expect the Senate to change hands, adding that he hates to say the House is probably gone. He argued that retaining the Senate allows the GOP to confirm nominations and serve as a firewall. He predicted a Democratic-controlled House would move quickly toward impeachment proceedings.

The former adviser identified the open Senate seat in Michigan as the most consequential contest. Republican Mike Rogers is challenging Democrat Abdul El-Sayed for the position. Lotter said Democrats need to flip four seats to reach the five pickups required for a majority. He expects Rogers to win the race, which would prevent that threshold. He also predicted Senator Susan Collins will hold her seat in Maine. A Marist poll conducted from October 15 to 18 showed El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 48 percent among likely voters.

Lotter compared the current voter behavior to the 2016 campaign, in which he worked with then-Governor Pence. He observed that Republican voters are returning to the polls after initial hesitation. He said many GOP voters no longer answer pollsters, a trend he believes is narrowing the gap shown in earlier data. He defended Senators Lisa Murkowski and Collins, who occasionally break with party lines. He said he prefers a representative who is 90 percent aligned with the party over an opponent who is never aligned.

He urged frustrated Republican voters not to sit out the election. He stated that electing a senator can lock in a seat for 18 to 24 years. He noted that this long term provides stability for the party’s legislative goals. His comments aimed to encourage turnout in key swing states. The advice came as national polls tighten in several races.

Indiana voters can check their registration, find their ballot, and locate a vote center before Tuesday. The information is available at IndianaVoters.in.gov. The state is not part of Lotter’s specific seat-by-seat analysis, but the federal midterms will determine the balance of power in Congress. The next session will begin after the new members are seated.

Lotter’s forecast aligns with the general expectation that the party out of power gains House seats in midterm elections. He emphasized the importance of the Senate majority for confirmation powers. He did not provide specific vote projections for other states beyond Michigan and Maine. The race in Michigan remains the primary focus for determining the Senate outcome.