Knesset Ballots: Israeli Voters Face Post-War Crossroads

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday in the first legislative election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. The vote determines the next government for a nation managing multiple active conflicts and facing rising international pressure.

Public broadcaster KAN released final polling data on Friday, the day a pre-vote publication ban began. The survey projects the opposition coalition will win 52 seats, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc secures 50. The remaining 18 seats are expected to go to unaffiliated groups, including the Ra'am and Joint List parties. Neither major faction currently holds the 61 seats necessary for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

The opposition alliance combines four Jewish-led movements. It includes the Yashar party of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats led by former deputy chief of staff Yair Golan, Yisrael Beiteinu under Avigdor Lieberman, and the Together alliance of Naftali Bennett. Opposition leader Yair Lapid has joined this grouping. In contrast, the pro-Netanyahu coalition unites Likud with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties such as United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Religious Zionism-Zehut.

Domestic grievances drive much of the voter anger. Citizens demand accountability for security failures preceding the 2023 attacks and object to the ultra-Orthodox community’s exemption from military service. Critics also oppose Netanyahu’s judicial reform plans, which they argue weaken liberal democratic norms. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, described the election as the last chance to save Israeli democracy for secular and liberal factions.

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for more than 15 of the last 17 years, faces personal risks. He is currently on trial for corruption charges filed in 2019 and holds an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes. A defeat in this election could leave him more vulnerable to a prison sentence and affect the status of an inquiry into the 2023 attacks.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian residents of Israel. Polls suggest Arab turnout could reach 60 percent, potentially allowing their parties to win up to 15 seats. Campaigners are targeting 70 percent, a high figure for recent decades. The Central Elections Committee had barred the Joint List and Ra'am last month, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision. The court also removed Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.