61 Seats: Israel Stuck After Election

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot both failed to secure the 61 seats required to form a government in the country's 120-seat parliament, known as the Knesset. The final election results show that opposition parties hold more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc, but Eisenkot lacks a clear majority without the support of predominantly Arab parties.

Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, campaigned against governing with these Arab-led groups. He stated that their positions on the war in Gaza prevent him from including them in his cabinet. Netanyahu faces a similar mathematical problem. His traditional coalition partners, including right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties, do not have enough seats to return him to power on their own.

In the coming days, Israel's president will meet with the leaders of every elected party. Each leader will recommend who they believe is most capable of assembling a coalition. The president is not required to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, the role goes to the candidate considered most likely to gather 61 lawmakers. That candidate has 28 days to secure the necessary support, with a possible 14-day extension.

One potential outcome is a unity government combining Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Reports suggest President Trump favors this arrangement, which would likely include moderate parties from the center and right. Such a government could facilitate cooperation on regional priorities, including Gaza reconstruction and a potential normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. However, Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve under Netanyahu, and the two leaders must still decide who will hold the prime minister title.

Another possibility is an Eisenkot government supported from outside by the Arab parties. Together, they would command more than 67 seats. Despite the comfortable majority, this option remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies rejected it during the campaign. A third option is a new election, which Netanyahu may believe favors his position. A fourth option involves lawmakers defecting from one camp to another. Netanyahu would need roughly eight defectors, while Eisenkot would need approximately 13 if he continues to exclude Arab parties.

During this stalemate, the opposition could advance legislation with support from Arab lawmakers. Eisenkot's bloc is considering replacing the speaker of the Knesset and establishing a state commission to investigate the failures that preceded the October 7, 2023, attack. They may also try to reverse legislation that critics say weakened Israel's democratic institutions. These moves would not establish a government but would allow opponents to exercise power while negotiations continue.

The possibility of renewed war with Iran adds pressure to the negotiations. Netanyahu said in his election night speech that Israel must complete its mission against Iran. Eisenkot warned him not to use national security for political needs. Analyst Danny Citrinowicz noted that an emergency could increase pressure on Eisenkot to join a unity government. Citrinowicz said, "He understands that returning to war against Iran while a government is being formed would serve his interests."