Hezbollah sets survival threshold for renewed conflict with US and Iran

The geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East continue to shift following the death of Iran's supreme leader in February. A senior Lebanese official stated on Saturday that Hezbollah is unlikely to join a new military confrontation between the United States and Iran unless the Iranian regime faces an existential threat.

According to the official, the militant group would enter the fight despite its weakened military capacity if the survival of the Iranian leadership is at stake. The official cited the joint US-Israeli strike on February 28, which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as an explicit red line that was crossed during previous hostilities. The source noted that Washington was previously informed of this threshold, stating, “We knew earlier this year, when the war in the region first broke out, that Hezbollah would join the fighting if [late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei were killed. We even informed the Americans about it.”

Lebanese security personnel report that Hezbollah has spent at least three months preparing for a resumption of hostilities with Israel. The group utilized the lull in fighting since June to rearm, focusing on procuring explosives and producing drones for use in the security zone. Two Lebanese security sources told Reuters that the organization received tens of millions of dollars from Iran to boost its military capabilities. This recent influx of funds is in addition to approximately $200 million that Tehran previously provided, a sum reported by Reuters earlier this month.

The militant group is also working to restore command-and-control structures that collapsed during key battles. One source and three other security officials familiar with the operations confirmed these efforts. Hezbollah's media office responded to questions from Reuters by rejecting the suggestion that its command systems had broken down. The group maintains its presence in southern Lebanon's pilot zones, where operatives are gathering intelligence and recuperating their fighting ability.

US officials indicated they will continue to pressure the group financially. A State Department spokesman said Washington would keep strangling Hezbollah's finances through sanctions and other measures. A Treasury spokesperson added that Iran is running out of money and ways to move funds. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts are underway regarding Israel's military presence in the region.

A senior Gulf diplomatic source told the Lebanese newspaper Ad-Diyar that US President Donald Trump pledged to secure a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon if Beirut agrees to join the Abraham Accords. The source described these as official commitments, though the newspaper provided no supporting documents or White House confirmation. The report did not specify when the commitments were made or if a timetable was set. Senior Israeli officials responded by insisting that Israel would not withdraw its forces before Hezbollah is disarmed.