Eisenkot and Netanyahu face deadlock after Israeli election

The recent election in Israel has left the country in a political stalemate. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, holds a clear path to forming a new government. The final results show that opposition parties won more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc. However, Eisenkot, a center-right former military chief of staff, lacks the support of predominantly Arab parties needed to reach a governing majority. His allies had ruled out such a coalition during the campaign.

Netanyahu's Likud party received the most votes, securing 27 seats. Despite this individual victory, his broader coalition lost the majority it held before the vote. The combined bloc of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties won 53 seats. A governing coalition requires at least 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

In the coming days, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with the leaders of every elected party. Each party will recommend the candidate it believes should attempt to form a coalition. The president is not obligated to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, he selects the candidate most likely to assemble a governing majority. That candidate receives 28 days to secure the support of 61 lawmakers. The president may grant a single extension of up to 14 days. If that fails, the president can offer the opportunity to another candidate.

Eisenkot appears more likely to receive recommendations from newly elected lawmakers than Netanyahu. However, his political bloc cannot form a majority without the Arab-led parties. These parties represent 21% of the population, who generally identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel. Eisenkot has stated that these parties' positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them. Some have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas or to condemn the group as a terrorist organization.

Netanyahu faces a similar hurdle. His traditional coalition partners do not possess enough seats to return him to power. One potential outcome is a unity government uniting Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Reports from Israeli and U.S. media suggest President Trump may favor this arrangement, although the network has not independently confirmed the claims. A unity government would likely include moderate parties from the political center and right. Such a coalition could facilitate cooperation with the Trump administration on regional priorities, including Gaza reconstruction and a potential normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.

Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. The two leaders would need to resolve questions regarding who serves as prime minister and whether the position rotates. A second possibility is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties from outside the coalition. Together, these groups command more than 67 seats. This arrangement remains unlikely due to campaign promises, though Arab parties could support a minority government without joining the cabinet.

If no candidate assembles a majority, a fourth election remains possible. President Herzog has urged leaders to avoid returning to the polls, noting the recent election drew the highest turnout in decades. Netanyahu may believe a repeat election favors him. He argues that Arab turnout might decline if Jewish opposition parties continue to exclude Arab representatives. Liberal Israelis who traveled from overseas to vote may also be less likely to return for another ballot.

A renewed war with Iran could also affect the negotiations. In his election night speech, Netanyahu stated that Israel must complete its mission against Iran and remove an existential threat. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use Israel's security for political needs. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst on Iran, noted that Netanyahu has a political incentive to renew fighting while government negotiations are underway. He said that returning to war would serve Netanyahu's interests by increasing pressure on Eisenkot to enter a unity government.