Two days to Election Day: Key Indiana races still undecided

Election Day arrives in two days, and Indiana party leaders say the outcome of several state races remains uncertain. Voters will decide contests for secretary of state, state treasurer, state comptroller, the U.S. House, the Indiana House and Senate, and various county and township offices. There is no U.S. Senate or gubernatorial race on the ballot this year.

The race for secretary of state is drawing the most attention. Host Garrett Bergquist noted that Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the contest as leaning Democratic. Recent polls show Beau Bayh holding a narrow lead, though many voters remain undecided. Republican candidate Max Engling and independent candidate Greg Ballard are also in the mix.

Republican commentator Mario Massillamany argues Engling can still win if Republican turnout is high. He warned that Ballard may draw votes away from Engling. Massillamany also criticized Bayh’s campaign advertising, suggesting Bayh is running as if seeking the governorship rather than the secretary of state post.

Democratic commentator Laura Beck said Bayh has run a strong issue-focused campaign. She believes divisions among Republicans, including their primary disputes, have given Bayh an advantage. Beck emphasized that poll methodology matters when interpreting current numbers.

In the state House, Democrats aim to win four seats to break the Republican supermajority. Indiana Democratic Party Chair Karen Tallian identified Hamilton County and other northern Indianapolis suburbs as key areas. She said several House races there, along with a congressional contest, will indicate how the night is going for her party.

Tallian said affordability was initially the top voter concern, but corruption has risen to the top in recent weeks. She expects national political anger to boost turnout despite the lack of a presidential race. Tallian noted that Democratic candidates Jessica Bailey and Coumba Kebe have raised more money than previous challengers in the treasurer and comptroller races.

In Congress, the Cook Political Report changed its rating of the race between U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz and Democrat J.D. Ford to lean Republican on Friday. Previously, the seat was rated safely Republican. Beck said Ford has a realistic chance as the district shifts politically. Massillamany agreed Spartz can win but said Ford’s past positions and outside spending support will not change the outcome.

Statewide, voters will also decide on Public Question 1. This measure would amend the Indiana Constitution to allow judges to deny bail for crimes other than murder or treason. Several school corporations have referendums on the ballot as well.

Beck said she is watching school district referendums to see if lawmakers who supported Senate Enrolled Act 1 face consequences. She described the act as reducing local government authority. Massillamany said economic concerns, including fuel costs and data centers, are driving voter motivation. He warned that low Republican turnout could help Democratic candidates in Indiana and neighboring states like Ohio and Michigan.

The program will provide live election results and analysis on Election Day.