School enrollment drops hit 40 states

Public school enrollment across the United States is falling due to a combination of demographic shifts and recent immigration policies.

The U.S. Department of Education reports that the number of students in public schools peaked in 2019 and has since dropped by approximately 1.5 million by the 2024 school year. Federal researchers project this decline will continue, with at least another 2 million students expected to leave public schools by 2030. This trajectory represents a 7 percent national drop over a single decade. A report from the education think tanks Bellwether and WestEd indicates that 40 states are currently experiencing these sustained enrollment losses. The study attributes the primary cause to a long-term decline in birth rates, followed by a slowdown in immigration. The authors estimate that falling enrollment will result in an annual loss of $11 billion in public school funding.

Kelly Gonez, a board member for the Los Angeles Unified School District, noted that birth rates in Los Angeles County have declined for decades. She stated, "Birth rates here in Los Angeles County have been declining for decades, which means fewer children enrolled in our schools." The district lost more than 300,000 students over the past twenty years. Gonez added that the district now faces a second consecutive year with a 4 percent enrollment decline. In September, the district announced a citywide effort to identify buildings and campuses for closure. She said, "When your district is roughly half the size of student population it was 20 years ago, it's hard to find a sustainable path to keep campuses open."

Guadalupe Cardona, a teacher at Santee Education Complex in South Los Angeles, reported that over 200 students did not show up on the first day of the recent school year. She said many families had moved away without notice. "In my school alone, we had over 200 students that didn't show up on the first day of school," Cardona said. "We found that a lot of them were just gone, no longer living where they had put their address down." The school lost two teachers at the start of the year due to these changes. Cardona attributed the drop to fear following an ICE agent shooting incident on the school's street in October 2025. No children or staff were injured in that event, but the incident heightened anxiety in the neighborhood.

Guadalupe Pineda, a parent who works in a shop near Santee High, described a quieter community with less foot traffic and sales. She said, "There's definitely less sales, less traffic, less everything." Pineda, who secured U.S. citizenship a few years ago, said she understands why families are withdrawing their children from school. "People are still scared, very much scared to go out to do everyday things," she said. "I feel like if I didn't have everything set with my immigration status, I would probably leave."

Thomas Dee, an education policy economist at Stanford University, observed that low birth rates and low immigration levels are occurring simultaneously for the first time since the Great Depression. He found that student daily absences spiked by more than 20 percent in California communities affected by ICE raids in 2025. In Texas, public school enrollment fell by more than 76,000 students last year, with the majority of the loss among Hispanic children. Florida experienced a similar drop, with Miami-Dade and Broward County districts losing roughly 30,000 children combined in one year.

White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis stated in an email that deportations make American classrooms less crowded. She cited a September post on the social media platform X, which noted that the total foreign-born population declined by 2.9 million between January 2025 and July 2026. The statement said net migration to the United States was negative for the first time since the 1930s. Ira Mehlman of the Federation for American Immigration Reform said the immigration system is not responsible for guaranteeing a specific number of students in schools. He said, "We don't guarantee the school system X number of kids."