Marist Poll Shows Democrats Leading Congressional Ballot by 8 Points Among Likely Voters

Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8 points among likely voters, according to an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll conducted Oct. 19-20. Among registered voters, the advantage was 10 points. The survey of 1,289 registered voters carries a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and 3.8 points for likely voters.

Historically, Democrats have performed well with similar leads. The average margin was 7 points in 2018 and 12 points in 2006, and in both years Democrats flipped at least 30 House seats to win control. Redistricting following the 2020 Census, along with mid-decade redistricting conducted at Trump's request in Republican-controlled states over the past 18 months, has shifted the composition of districts toward Republicans.

President Trump's job approval stands at 40 percent among likely voters, with 59 percent disapproving. Among registered voters, 38 percent approved and 61 percent disapproved. In both groups, 53 percent said they strongly disapprove, tying last month for the highest level recorded in the poll. Trump's favorability among likely voters was 37 percent favorable and 59 percent negative.

Economic pressure tops the list of voter concerns. A third of respondents reported experiencing financial hardship in the past year, and 38 percent said their personal finances had worsened. "The economy is at the top of my list right now," said Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona who participated in the poll and leans toward Democrats. "They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for."

Democratic likely voters show an enthusiasm edge, with 71 percent reporting they are very enthusiastic about voting compared with 61 percent of Republican likely voters. Enthusiasm lags within some groups Democrats depend on: 42 percent of likely voters under 45, 53 percent of non-white voters, and 56 percent of white women with college degrees said they are very enthusiastic. Among MAGA voters, 68 percent said the same, as did 66 percent of white women without degrees and 61 percent of white evangelical voters. Among independents, 48 percent report high enthusiasm.

Democratic likely voters split on their party's prospects: 98 percent said they would vote for a Democrat, while 81 percent thought the Democratic candidate would win. Republicans showed a 10-point smaller gap between those figures. Among independents, a higher share believed the Democratic candidate would win. Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Tyler, Texas, who participated in the survey, said, "This year is different. This year, it feels like every opportunity to vote is a referendum against the party in power."

Three-quarters of likely voters expressed confidence that their state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election, including 88 percent of Democrats, 68 percent of Republicans and 75 percent of independents. Seventy percent of Republicans said their preferred candidate should accept election results, while a quarter said their candidate should probably or definitely challenge them. Sixty-one percent of respondents said immigrants should have a way to stay in the country legally if they meet certain requirements.

On data centers, 6 in 10 respondents said new construction would mostly have a negative impact on the country, and 66 percent opposed building one in their own community. Forty-one percent said they strongly oppose such construction. Majorities of Republicans and MAGA supporters viewed data centers as net positive, while Democrats and independents opposed them overwhelmingly.