AP Method Sets 2026 Race Calls

The Associated Press will determine the winners of 435 House races, 35 Senate races, and 36 gubernatorial contests in the 2026 election. NPR partners with the AP to announce these results to its broadcast and digital audiences. The AP has used this same process to call elections since 1848.

Race callers work alongside analysts who focus on statewide contests and House elections. Decision editors on the AP team sign off on every call for president, Senate, and governor seats. They also approve calls for significant House races. This collaborative structure ensures that multiple experts review the data before a winner is named.

The team analyzes incoming votes county by county rather than relying on total statewide sums. They break down ballots by voting method, distinguishing between in-person polls and advance mail or in-person ballots. Staff maintain constant contact with the AP vote count team to track how many ballots remain uncounted. They also examine the demographics of areas where votes are still outstanding to assess the likelihood of a shift in results.

The AP declares a winner only when a clear path to victory exists for one candidate. This determination does not require 100% of the votes to be counted. The guiding principle is that no other candidate can overtake the leader once all remaining ballots are tallied. The organization does not use projections or speculation to name a winner.

NPR and the AP do not call a race based on a candidate’s declaration of victory or concession speech. A race is called only when the trailing candidates no longer have a mathematical path to win. This standard prevents premature announcements in close contests. The AP cites the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore as an example of a race it did not call because the margin in Florida was too narrow to determine a winner with certainty.

When the AP makes a call, it provides transparent reporting on the research and analysis behind the decision. NPR uses AP data to populate its election results pages in real time. The network alerts its member stations to ensure widespread access to the confirmed results. This process continues as counting proceeds over the days following election night.

The race calls will ultimately determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. NPR will cover all major calls through its on-air and online platforms. The process remains focused on final vote counts and the mathematical certainty of each candidate’s victory.