UN report: Most displaced people live where climate risks are highest
A new agency report details the overlap between conflict zones and climate hazards, noting that weather events are complicating return home for millions of refugees.
By Elena Castillo ·
For roughly 90 million people forced to leave their homes, the location of their refuge often determines their exposure to weather extremes. The United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, reported on Friday that three-quarters of the world's forcibly displaced population resides in countries with severe climate hazards. This demographic includes refugees and others fleeing conflict or persecution who now face additional threats from droughts, floods, and heat.
The agency published the findings days before the COP31 climate summit in Turkey. The report argues that climate change is making it harder to find permanent solutions for displaced people. Anton Leis Garcia, UNHCR's assistant high commissioner for operations, described the situation as a double injustice. He noted that these individuals fled conflicts they did not cause and now stand on the front lines of a climate crisis to which they contributed the least.
Return home has become a riskier proposition. The report states that more than two-thirds of refugees who returned to their countries in the first half of 2026 went back to places highly vulnerable to climate hazards. In Syria, nearly four million displaced people have recently returned. However, declining groundwater levels and climate shocks threaten that recovery. Flooding along the Euphrates River in May damaged homes and displaced thousands again.
Heat is emerging as a specific threat in Africa. UNHCR warned that by 2050, one in three refugee settlements in sub-Saharan Africa could experience 100 or more days of dangerous heat annually. Meanwhile, weather-related disasters are driving internal displacement. The agency counted more than 255 million internal displacements globally over the past decade, a rate of 70,000 people per day.
The current El Nino event is expected to worsen conditions. Forecasts suggest severe flooding linked to the weather pattern could displace up to three million people across Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Uganda by the end of 2026. Garcia stated that for millions, climate change is actively destroying shelters and undermining livelihoods.
Financing remains a gap. UNHCR reported that only 10 percent of global climate finance goes to fragile and conflict-affected countries that host large populations of climate-exposed displaced people. The agency will use the COP31 platform to urge governments and financial institutions to include displaced populations in national climate plans and financing mechanisms. Garcia said the world cannot allow those who have already lost so much to be left behind in global climate action.
